Reply With QuoteKim Jong Ill is gonna be so pissed at you for this. Your lack of faith is disturbing!
Order this book, Larry Bond allready did the work for you;
http://www.amazon.com/Red-Phoenix-La.../dp/0446359688
North Korean invasion of the South. First 24 hours.
Here's how I see it happening.
0400 - all the serviceable transport palnes, infiltration craft and helos are dispatched loaded with commandoes over the DMZ. NK agents in the South are activated with predetrmined goals and plans. Light infantry units take position in the invasion tunnels under the DMZ. "Dear Leader" and high command take place in nuke-proof bunkers in the mountains.
Result. - Lack of training means that vast majority of surviving (the flight over DMZ airdefences) commandoes are dispersed all over the palce, including NK itself and instead of attacking pre-assigned targets, they go for tragets of opportunity. Small numbers of agents in the South fail to cause serious disruption as many have turned double agent while in South Korea.
0430 - code word is given. 70% of NK ballistic missile stock is launched at SK airfields, road junctions, bases, Seoul and US bases in the region. NK artillery opens up along the whole front. NK Navy begins it's unconventional attacks with midget subs and torpedo boats. NK airforce takes off en mass for one-way missions (including a few suicide ramming ones.) as it knows that it will be destroyed within 12 hours anyways and go for a hail mary. Light troops exit invasion tunnels 1-2 kilometers behind the DMZ and begin to assemble.
Result. - The impresise missiles fail to close SK airfields or disrupt road movement, they cause massive panic but few casualties in Seoul, roads are clogged with fleeing people. US bases are hit with a few missiles that were not intecepted but US personel has time to shelter and damage is slight and material only. NK artillery pounds the DMZ but SK and US troops are well entrenched and protected and suffer few casualties. NK airforce ceases to exist and except in a few cases fails to do damage. Untrained pilots drop their unguided ordanance all over the place.
0500 - SK/American counter response, artillery, cruise missiles, aircraft are taking off, general, mobilisation of reserves, US carriers hurry to the theater. US long range bombers take of with bunker busters. SK declares martial law and total mobilization of reserves. NK troops enter the DMZ with engineer troops, clear minefields (including using prisoners) and begin building ramps over the "Korean wall"
Result - due to SK fire, ramps are slow to be built and in the first 6 hours next to no NK vehicle makes it into the South. Concentrations of NK tank troops heading south are blasted at crossroads creating huge bottlenecks. NK Strategic targets, communication nodes, fuel depots and artillery concentrations are heavily hit. Seoul receives some sporadic artillery fire from the few artillery tubes that can reach it. NK artillery fire is heavy but innacurate.
0530 - 1000 NK waves of infantry begin to attack the DMZ.
Result - DMZ is breached almost everywhere except the "forts" but first line NK infantry is disorganized and bled dry. Tunnel infiltration troops are reduced after attempting to storm heavily defended objectives. Lack of training and heavy weapons. First armored SK units begin to engage the enemy. Airstrikes begin to pound NK non-stop. All landlines in the North are cut, electricity is cut, strategic tagets destroyed.
1000-1500 - Masses of NK armor and infantry begin to pour from the DMZ South.
Result - SK troops close to the DMZ are pushed aside through sheer weight of numbers but NK Army is geting increasingly disorganized, roads are clogged with 100's of destroyed vehicles and advance is very slow. NK surface Navy is almost completely wiped out.
1500-2000 - NK continues it's advance South. Large coherent SK units begin to set up a second defensive line on the outskirts of Seoul and 20-30kms behind the DMZ.
Result - NK artillery fire intensity is falling. Counter battery fire and lack of ammo. The fighting begins to shift out of their range.
2000-2400 - NK troops are bogged down with sight of the Seoul outskirts and begin to clash with second line SK units.
Result - tactical indecision by inexperienced NK officers. NK population completely cutt off from Goverment control. Chaos begins to spread to some areas and at the border, mass flight to China.
Kim Jong Ill is gonna be so pissed at you for this. Your lack of faith is disturbing!
Order this book, Larry Bond allready did the work for you;
http://www.amazon.com/Red-Phoenix-La.../dp/0446359688
Where does the part about a failing NK regime using a low yield nuclear weapon on the battlefield come in?
China got involved last time. I think it would be a safe bet that they would if it happend again.
Is a suprise attack really possible? do all the SK intel people walk round with there heads up their ass?
IMHO, from military point of view, such scenario is very weak. A few points:
1) Full scale attack need preparation. With comprehensive tools (like UAVs and satellites) and good intel, SK command will be aware of coming NK attack at least a week before. Remember, NK army is million men strong, moving such huge forces into position takes time. Moving arti into positions takes a lot of time, and perfectly seen from above.
So, there are two possibilities: SK&US forces makes preemptive strike, so we switch to completely different scenario. Or SK forces in full alert (with mobilization started already) awaits NK's first strike, and after that makes its own strike immediately.
2) Standard military tactic: use bombs and artillery first, then attack with land forces. Infiltration forces as commandos and ninjas should not go first.
3) NK arti is very numerous and will be very effective and devastating. It is stupid to assume that if they dont have millimeter precision, they cant do anything. WW2 tactics works well, ALWAYS.
4) If we assume that SK command was unaware of NK attack, than starting retaliatory strikes with an hour after initial attack absolutely unrealistic. Its 5 am if I understood correctly, people are sleeping.
Maybe after 8-12 hours there will be serious resisting, but not earlier.
5) If NK armor and personnel with big numbers (lets say 300k) started to invade, they could be stopped, I'd say, after a week or so of heavy and costly fighting. After a 24 hours? No way?
And BTW, how do we know that chain of command in NK army is bad? They all may be inexperienced, but they could follow orders quite well and advance very far, even under air strikes.
Light infantry units in the forward corps have been increased in size. The divisional battalions are now regiments. Corps-level brigades are now divisions. This is traditionally an indicator of attack, but it is DPRK/Fantasyland so who knows? They could be there to prevent desertion from conventional formations. For my money it's that AND that they anticipate massive losses among those units as they atempt to beat the ROKs into critical positions, attack specific target sets, etc.
The forward light units and reconnaissance forces, having been built up in size, could conceivably seize and hold ground until the heavy units and regular infantry - what survives the trip south anyway - arrive to reinforce. Maybe Kim and the gang think that's enough to gain leverage in a negotiated settlement.
Or they could suprise everyone and do a good job and finish the war. Afterall this is all just speculation.
I read that book when it first came out, interesting alternate history.Originally Posted by Dispatcher
I never said SK was caught completely by surprise.
Bombs and artillery will alert the defendants. D-Day, paras were dropped before the fireworks.
WW1 arty was even heavier and even more devastating. Entrenched troops survived it no problem.
I didn't say they were completely stopped. By end of the day they begin to engage main SK units and approach Seoul where they bog down due to area becoming urbanized.
People, feel free to post your scenarios.
I can only admire, people, your cheerful enthusiasm, with which you are contemplating a possibility of events which may result in death of hundreds of thousands or millions, nuclear war and global chaos.
nukes for the win , or loss
I blame Michael Bay.
correct me if i am wrong but south korea is only few kilometres from the border and is not bunkered down tight like israel. Under fire, riot, looting, mayhem and of course suicide one way air trips and heavy artillary bombardments a hell of a lot more than 'few casualties' is going to result.
Lets look at it in another perspective quickly. Say Seoul and surrounding cities with population roughly around 20+ million and you were a south korean soldier. Would you just join up and go to the front lines and fight or would a huge part of you want to run to seoul (or surrounding cities) to protect your family from the mayhem and destruction? I bet at least 50-60% of south korean soldiers will turn and run to protect their families and livelihood. South Korea got a hell of a lot more to lose and the greater you are, the greater the fall.
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