Peak oil doomsayers proved wrong
SourceWashington (CNN) -- Remember "peak oil"?
Five years ago, some oil market speculators became convinced that the world was nearing the limits of oil production. Sometime soon -- the 2010s? the 2020s? -- oil production would begin a long steady decline.
Think again. World oil production continues to rise. Leading the oil renaissance: the United States. The International Energy Agency predicts that the United States will overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia to become (again!) the world's leading oil producer by 2017. If the agency's estimates prove correct, the United States and Canada together will become net energy exporters by about 2030, and the U.S., which uses 20% of the world's energy, will achieve energy self-sufficiency by the mid-2030s.
Predictions that the world would imminently "run out of oil" have been worrying oil consumers since at least the 1920s. They always prove wrong, for reasons explained by the great oil economist M.A. Adelman after the last "oil shortage" in the 1970s:
Oil reserves, Adelman writes, "are no gift of nature. They (are) a growth of knowledge, paid for by heavy investment."
Reminds me of the peak oil doomsday sentiment in a book I read years ago, The Party's Over, by Richard Heinberg. If I recall, the author was certain that oil sand/shale production would never be financially feasible based on the projected market price of oil in the future. Wrong.
Two corrections : Cheap oil productin is ended and global oil production is not so rising (KSA, Kuwait and UAE reports of prod are known to be falsified, that has become an open secret)World oil production continues to rise.
It might be good for some time, but we should seriously invest on alternative sources of energy. And its better we do it before we run out. Hundred years is not that long time.
Production may rise, but reserves dwindle. It's the nature of the beast. We might have shunted the 'peak' forward or just avoided it all together, but some day, we will run out. Plus, what is Peak Oil when your gas will inevitably get more expensive anyway?
x2. Act now whilst we have the room to do so. Future proofing.Originally Posted by PEMM
This from the quoted source article.For all practical purposes, the world's supply of oil is not finite. It is more like a supermarket's supply of canned tomatoes. At any given moment, there may be a dozen cases in the store, but that inventory is constantly being replenished with the money the customers pay for the cans they remove, and the more tomatoes that customers buy, the bigger an inventory the store will carry.
Really? Not finite? Really?
Also who is this David Frum? From article,I guess he hasn't yet met a fracking or tar sands issue he can't bloviate away with his rose colored gas/oil administration glasses.Editor's note: David Frum, a CNN contributor, is a contributing editor at Newsweek and The Daily Beast. He is the author of eight books, including a new novel, "Patriots," and a post-election e-book, "Why Romney Lost." Frum was a special assistant to President George W. Bush from 2001 to 2002.
If you do agree with this "expert" that oil isn't finite (in his terms) and consumption of fossil fuels (including NG) doesn't have negative consequences for us then enjoy the slumber. Ignorance is bliss.
But if you even slightly believe that oil and other fossil fuels aren't the end-all to our energy needs then please keep asking for/buying/supporting etc. any and all alternatives to fossil fuel addiction. Your children and their children may thank you.
if thats the case that oil is so plentiful, why is Big Oil continuing to stifle supply, raising prices ?
I will wager a guess: $$$$$$$$$$ ?
Good to know. The doom and gloom from a few years ago wasn't good for the spirit of many people.
I love the claim about "they always prove wrong", no matter what at some point production peaks the question is only when.
Because production costs are higher for the oil being pulled out of the ground in the US. That's a big reason why US production dwindled, because it wasn't profitable enough to do so when Saudi was fighting hard to keep oil at $20 a barrel.
FWIW despite what the article states that is something that is part of the peak oil predictions. Not that oil will suddenly run out but that there is a point where costs will continue to rise indefinitely as it becomes more difficult & expensive to exploit the available reserves.
Last edited by PMI; 03-06-2013 at 05:17 PM.
So you think that nobody is pursuing the Holy Grail of cheap renewable energy? Do you have any idea how much money there is to be made for the company that makes a big breakthrough? And as oil prices creep higher, the incentive only increases.
The only people "stifling the supply" are governments; the Obama administration, for example.
Did you maybe quote a wrong comment? As I didn't claim such thing.
These things are not black or white, that we either research or we don't. We certainly could invest more.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
