In the Israeli collective memory, the Yom Kippur War is associated mainly with the IDF’s lack of preparedness. Known by the Hebrew term Mechdal (dereliction of duty), this condition was primarily due to the failure of Military Intelligence (AMAN) to provide a high-quality warning that an attack was imminent. According to IDF doctrine in 1973, such a warning was to be given at least 48 hours before the beginning of a war – the minimal time span needed to mobilize the reservists, who then constituted approximately 80% of the IDF ground forces. In 1973, however, the warning was provided only ten hours before fighting commenced. As a result, the IDF lacked the forces needed to defend the Suez and Golan fronts and the military command was highly disorganized during the war’s first stage.
AMAN’s failure to provide the time-sensitive warning was not the result of insufficient information regarding the Arabs’ preparations or intention to launch a war. Israel’s Military Intelligence had, in fact, received substantive information about an imminent attack from key sources including King Hussein of Jordan, who had warned Prime Minister Golda Meir ten days before the war began, as well as well-placed Mossad agents in Egypt. In addition, AMAN had been closely following the accumulation of forces along the Golan and Suez Canal. Thus, there were ample warnings and indicators. Until the very last moment, however, AMAN’s senior analysts, as well as its director, Eli Zeira, continued to adhere to their belief that Egypt would avoid war so long as it did not receive aircraft capable of attacking IAF bases in Israel and surface-to-surface missiles that could deter the IAF from attacking Egypt’s rear. These conditions, were not met prior to the war and consequently, AMAN officially estimated even twenty-four hours before the fighting started that the likelihood of war was “low” (Bar-Joseph 2005, 81-186). The CIA, which relied mostly on Israeli estimates regarding the likelihood of war, erred similarly.
Only a last-minute warning by Israel’s most important intelligence source in Egypt, Ashraf Marwan, the late President Nasser’s son-in-law and a close advisor to President Sadat, prevented a complete surprise. Marwan met the chief of the Mossad, Zvi Zamir, in London sixteen hours before the onset of the war to warn him that the Arab attack would begin the next day. The warning reached Israel at 4:00 a.m., ten hours before firing commenced. The mobilization of the reserves began some five hours later, in the midst of the Yom Kippur fast and the first reserve soldiers were just arriving at their bases when the war broke out (Ibid.187-99).