Hi, I have been reading all those post with lot of interest, and I my opinion I must say that I think that we are forgetting the most importat thing, the surprise factor as the main factor that puts germans at Moscow gates.
We have been talking about the supplies help that allies send to SU, about war in africa, italian and french fronts, even the effects of allies bomber raids, but in my opinion we have been forgetting the main point, the first germans victories in east front were posible in great part to the fact that Stalin was 200% sure that germans will not attack SU until they will have defeat UK, Stalin was absolutely sure that germans and allies (uk and commonwealth in that phase of the war) will destroy themselves, then a modernized soviet army will defeat the survivors. That made that in the first hours, even days of german invasion, soviet troops didnīt have clear orders of attack or deffend
of germans attacks, they were not even sure about what the hell was going on, the HQ in Moscow were giving confusing orders, troops were not ready for the war, planes were on the airfields, soldiers were not in the logic places to front a german invasion because Stalin was sure that there will not be
a german attack yet, and he didnīt want to make germans to think that SU was holding beligerant actitudes.
but in the exact moment that uk will leave the war, in that moment, Stalin and soviet generals will know, will be 100% sure that they will be the next country to be attacked by germans forces. So, in the moment of german attack, all soviet forces will be placed to fight back that attack,
soviest planes will be on the air, soviet forces will be in their trenches in the fronters, all country men will be movilized and send to the front lines, all civilians will start to make trenches and garrisons, all fields and roads will be mined, that millions of soldiers that were catch by surprise by the german attack will be aware of the attack, german advance will be stopped or at less
will be less faster, germans forces will gain less territory, and their losses will be much bigger they will never get close to Moscow so fast, they will be probably stopped inside Ukranian borders, soviet forces will not lost so many men, tanks, guns and planes that if they were cautgh by surprise,
in that situation, the victory of SU will not be a chance, it will be a certain fact, they will not stop at Berlin, they will continue the fight until conquer the whole Germany, France, and probably the rest of Europe,
in short, if SU will have to fight alone the germans, they will not be surprised by the attack, they will be waiting their attack, their generals, trops and armys will have clear instructions about what to do and german advance will be soon stopped with much less losses for soviets and a
much higher number of casualities for germans.