Hezbollah in Lebanese government

[dracon49]

Originally Posted by hidayatnw

Israel last Lebanese adventure has result: Israel must pull out shamefully, some people said Israel has been defeated Israel's economy get worse give only bad name for Israel as murders in Europe, UN and all world if Israel attack Hezbollah, it will be Lebanon vs Israel, it is not more Hezbollah vs Israel ... Barack can say everything or anything but it is just bluff, it is pure politic.. peace in the world

Our economy was ok after the war there was a growth and will not start a war-if will bomb Lebanon it will be only if they do a provocation-we dont need a war ,also because will have ppl that get killed and it will do damage to our economy and also it will do damage in the international arena(and now our situation isnt so good..) ,but ofcourse if they will kidnap soldiers or something like that will respone i think harshly and unlike 2006 i think now we are fully prepared to fight in Lebanon(terms of training equipment knowing the enemy and so on..).

[tanks_alot]

Originally Posted by BPEL

Need to add a fifth element in the poll,

Its good for Lebanon, since they are Lebanese after all.

Further, its not only Hizballah in the new national unity goverment, its the opposition in which the Hizballah is a member off.

As for the Israel vs Lebanese position, it may be status quo for the short term, but it will change in the long term in a positive way.

Poll #4 is baseless with all the due respect to the members who chose it. Need to stop being ignorant.

Hope this helps.

Where have you been at?

[BPEL]

Originally Posted by tanks_alot

Where have you been at?

Sorry for the long delay

Was on a very long trekking expedition.

[500]

During 2006 war Hezbollah was in the government. The only difference that they did not have veto then.

Originally Posted by hidayatnw

Israel last Lebanese adventure has result: Israel must pull out shamefully, some people said Israel has been defeated Israel's economy get worse give only bad name for Israel as murders in Europe, UN and all world if Israel attack Hezbollah, it will be Lebanon vs Israel, it is not more Hezbollah vs Israel ... Barack can say everything or anything but it is just bluff, it is pure politic.. peace in the world

Last adventure has result:

1) Hezbollah attacks ceased. Last 3 years were most calm since late 1960-es.
2) Lebanese army took control of the border first time since early 1970-es.
3) Strong international force was set in South Lebanon.
4) Hezbollah was bared from carrying weapons open.
5) Hezbollah and Lebanese Shiites suffered heavy blow.

Israeli economy grew by 5% on 2006.

[Rugal09]

What is Hezbollah's raison d'etre? Primarily it was the expulsion of all foreign forces from Lebanon. But Hezbollah also lists the spreading of the Islamic Revolution and the elimination of Israel as its goals as well. If you give Hezbollah political legitimacy, it makes it easier for Hezbollah to push their agenda in a more vigorous and de jure way.

[GB_FXST]

Originally Posted by BPEL

Need to add a fifth element in the poll,

Its good for Lebanon, since they are Lebanese after all.

Further, its not only Hizballah in the new national unity goverment, its the opposition in which the Hizballah is a member off.

As for the Israel vs Lebanese position, it may be status quo for the short term, but it will change in the long term in a positive way.

Poll #4 is baseless with all the due respect to the members who chose it. Need to stop being ignorant.

Hope this helps.

I find it hard to imagine that individual moderate/secular Lebanese believe that this is a good thing.

Why is it farfetched, or ignorant, to conclude that Hezbollah political ascendancy has the potential to increase Iran’s influence in Lebanon. Hezbollah, as an Iranian proxy, can be expected to export their Iranian based ideology to other sectors of the government and country. And who is to say that Hezbollah will only be satisfied with only these cabinet positions?

[BPEL]

Originally Posted by GB_FXST

I find it hard to imagine that individual moderate/secular Lebanese believe that this is a good thing.

Why is it farfetched, or ignorant, to conclude that Hezbollah political ascendancy has the potential to increase Iran’s influence in Lebanon. Hezbollah, as an Iranian proxy, can be expected to export their Iranian based ideology to other sectors of the government and country. And who is to say that Hezbollah will only be satisfied with only these cabinet positions?

Because you can't just throw over 750,000 Lebanese shiites into the sea. They have to be represented in order to be treated equally.

As for the cabinet positions, Shiites, Maronites, Catholics or whatever can have only certain number of Parlamentary members.

"Lebanon's national legislature is the unicameral Parliament of Lebanon. Its 128 seats are divided equally between Muslims and Christians, proportionately between the 18 different denominations and proportionately between its 26 regions.[72] Prior to 1990, the ratio stood at 6:5 in favor of Christians; however, the Taif Accord, which put an end to the 1975–1990 civil war, adjusted the ratio to grant equal representation to followers of the two religions.[70] The Parliament is elected for a four-year term by universal suffrage[1] although the civil war precluded the exercise of this right.

The executive branch consists of the President, the head of state, and the Prime Minister, the head of government. The parliament elects the president for a non-renewable six-year term by a two-third majority. The president appoints the Prime Minister.[73] Following consultations with the parliament and the President, the Prime Minister forms the Cabinet, which must also adhere to the sectarian distribution set out by confessionalism"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanon

In other words, its also not possible to export their ideology into the other parts of the government, they may and do take sides, opposition, loyalists or whatever, to form or be part of a government.

[deathil93]

I doubt that HZB, a terrorist orginazation, being part of a democratic government would be in any way beneficial to lebanon. If the shiites want a representetive in the government, can't they form a proper party, that is not a terrorist orginazation?

HZB being part of the government would only give us more levrege with the international community in-case there will be a 3rd lebanon war.

Originally Posted by 500

During 2006 war Hezbollah was in the government. The only difference that they did not have veto then.


Last adventure has result:

1) Hezbollah attacks ceased. Last 3 years were most calm since late 1960-es.
2) Lebanese army took control of the border first time since early 1970-es.
3) Strong international force was set in South Lebanon.
4) Hezbollah was bared from carrying weapons open.
5) Hezbollah and Lebanese Shiites suffered heavy blow.

Israeli economy grew by 5% on 2006.

don't try to make the operation in '06 look good, we lost badly, the only suprise is that the economy actually grew.
so what if the lebanese and the UN are in the south? it doesn't stop HZB or other terrorist orginazations from shooting rockets at us, tho not in a mass scale, but still. The UN doesn't do **** there except look important, same for the lebanese army... in fact if HZB and the UN/lebanese forces would go head to head, HZB would win, I put my 50 monopoly shekels on that. Only an intervention from israel would help them win... the UN is there just to show muscle, if a UN compound would be attacked by the HZB they would either say it was israel or it was an accident or start an "investigation", everything but go head to head with the HZB...

BTW, I must agree partially with you, yes there was an achievment, we liberated, even if partially, south lebanon so the UN and the lebanese army could move in (as you said, for the first time since the 70s, over 30 years).

[GiladS]

Originally Posted by deathil93

don't try to make the operation in '06 look good, we lost badly, the only suprise is that the economy actually grew.

No one can yet determine the affects of the Second Lebanon War.

So enough with the self flagellation...

[GB_FXST]

Originally Posted by BPEL

Because you can't just throw over 750,000 Lebanese shiites into the sea. They have to be represented in order to be treated equally.

As for the cabinet positions, Shiites, Maronites, Catholics or whatever can have only certain number of Parlamentary members.

"Lebanon's national legislature is the unicameral Parliament of Lebanon. Its 128 seats are divided equally between Muslims and Christians, proportionately between the 18 different denominations and proportionately between its 26 regions.[72] Prior to 1990, the ratio stood at 6:5 in favor of Christians; however, the Taif Accord, which put an end to the 1975–1990 civil war, adjusted the ratio to grant equal representation to followers of the two religions.[70] The Parliament is elected for a four-year term by universal suffrage[1] although the civil war precluded the exercise of this right.

The executive branch consists of the President, the head of state, and the Prime Minister, the head of government. The parliament elects the president for a non-renewable six-year term by a two-third majority. The president appoints the Prime Minister.[73] Following consultations with the parliament and the President, the Prime Minister forms the Cabinet, which must also adhere to the sectarian distribution set out by confessionalism"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanon

In other words, its also not possible to export their ideology into the other parts of the government, they may and do take sides, opposition, loyalists or whatever, to form or be part of a government.

Thank you for the reply.

I recognize some of the inherent pitfalls of constituent politics in a federation type government.

But, what I am getting at is will Hezbollah play by the established rules? Basically, as they increase their political power and become more confident in the political arena, will they (or their Iranian patrons) be content with the sectarian status quo, or will they launch a coup to grab total control of government? Hezbollah, of course, has a power base that no other force in Lebanon can counter.

BTW, I like your avatar. I worry that you would not be able to display it if Hezbollah grabs power.

[BPEL]

Originally Posted by GB_FXST

Thank you for the reply.

I recognize some of the inherent pitfalls of constituent politics in a federation type government.

But, what I am getting at is will Hezbollah play by the established rules? Basically, as they increase their political power and become more confident in the political arena, will they (or their Iranian patrons) be content with the sectarian status quo, or will they launch a coup to grab total control of government? Hezbollah, of course, has a power base that no other force in Lebanon can counter.

BTW, I like your avatar. I worry that you would not be able to display it if Hezbollah grabs power.

Correct, many in Lebanon (including the head of the maronite church) fear as such where that power will "islamitize" Lebanon, for the lack of better words. What they fear is Lebanon will no longer hold its Christian identity. Now if you believe or you dont, its a different story. Other christians fear that the Sunni block is a far bigger threat to Lebanese than the Shiite block. Some examples are where Saudi/Kuwaiti investment firms who own Lebanese business are not allowing alcohol to be sold. Or during the summer season, Churches in villages such as Bhamdoon (1983 IDF members should know where this village is) and Alley are not allowed to ring their bells during mass as to not to "disrespect" our Saudi and Kuwait guests. The Shiite villages do not have that say, other than Brazilian Samba dancing on the street for some useless reason in Tyre a few weeks ago.

Lebanese politics are very complicated, however, you need to understand we have a cheesy Constitution since idependence, its not 100%, but it does work because no single entity/relegion/political power can rule. We paid a heavy price during the civil war because of these "fantasies" and brought us no where.

As for the Avatar, that is Haifa Wehbe, a Lebanese super star singer extraordinaire, she is a Shiite and a Hizballah supporter.

Despite the claim regarding the Iranian patrons, we feel that though Hizballah is funded by Iran (primarily due to the shiite connection), Hizballah has different aspirations within Lebanon.

[500]

Originally Posted by GB_FXST

I find it hard to imagine that individual moderate/secular Lebanese believe that this is a good thing.

Why is it farfetched, or ignorant, to conclude that Hezbollah political ascendancy has the potential to increase Iran’s influence in Lebanon. Hezbollah, as an Iranian proxy, can be expected to export their Iranian based ideology to other sectors of the government and country. And who is to say that Hezbollah will only be satisfied with only these cabinet positions?

There is a choice between bad and worse. Hezb outside the government will be bitching a lot.

Originally Posted by deathil93

don't try to make the operation in '06 look good, we lost badly,

Situation after the war is better than before - fact. So how u can say that we "lost badly"?

so what if the lebanese and the UN are in the south? it doesn't stop HZB or other terrorist orginazations from shooting rockets at us, tho not in a mass scale, but still.

Thats nowhere close to what happaned before 2006. Fact that there is no single injured since 2006. When the last time it happaned on Lebanese border?

in fact if HZB and the UN/lebanese forces would go head to head, HZB would win, I put my 50 monopoly shekels on that.

Hzb and UN/Lebanese forces wont go head to head. But their presence means repsonsibility of Lebanese government. Because before 2006 Lebanese government refused to take the responsibility over the border.

BTW, I must agree partially with you, yes there was an achievment, we liberated, even if partially, south lebanon so the UN and the lebanese army could move in (as you said, for the first time since the 70s, over 30 years).

Yep situation now is better than before.

[GB_FXST]

Originally Posted by BPEL

Correct, many in Lebanon (including the head of the maronite church) fear as such where that power will "islamitize" Lebanon, for the lack of better words. What they fear is Lebanon will no longer hold its Christian identity. Now if you believe or you dont, its a different story. Other christians fear that the Sunni block is a far bigger threat to Lebanese than the Shiite block. Some examples are where Saudi/Kuwaiti investment firms who own Lebanese business are not allowing alcohol to be sold. Or during the summer season, Churches in villages such as Bhamdoon (1983 IDF members should know where this village is) and Alley are not allowed to ring their bells during mass as to not to "disrespect" our Saudi and Kuwait guests. The Shiite villages do not have that say, other than Brazilian Samba dancing on the street for some useless reason in Tyre a few weeks ago.

Lebanese politics are very complicated, however, you need to understand we have a cheesy Constitution since idependence, its not 100%, but it does work because no single entity/relegion/political power can rule. We paid a heavy price during the civil war because of these "fantasies" and brought us no where.

As for the Avatar, that is Haifa Wehbe, a Lebanese super star singer extraordinaire, she is a Shiite and a Hizballah supporter.

Despite the claim regarding the Iranian patrons, we feel that though Hizballah is funded by Iran (primarily due to the shiite connection), Hizballah has different aspirations within Lebanon.

Application of strict Islamic law, Sunni or Shia, would seem to be a bad thing for the majority of Lebanese regardless of religious affiliation.

It would appear to be a very fragile political situation, and the introduction of any radical group, Hezbollah or other, would introduce more instability.

Hezbollah supporter or not, Wehbe is an attractive woman. I do find it interesting that she is so provocative in her pose. I suspect that that speaks to the overall secularization of Lebanon.

[BPEL]

Originally Posted by GB_FXST

Application of strict Islamic law, Sunni or Shia, would seem to be a bad thing for the majority of Lebanese regardless of religious affiliation.

It would appear to be a very fragile political situation, and the introduction of any radical group, Hezbollah or other, would introduce more instability.

Hezbollah supporter or not, Wehbe is an attractive woman. I do find it interesting that she is so provocative in her pose. I suspect that that speaks to the overall secularization of Lebanon.

Yes it is very fragile, we have seen it many times and Israel has as well. Recent rockets that were fired across the border by other jihadists movements. Everyone is in danger.

Lebanon is very secular, everyone gets along just fine, until one opens his mouth regardling political affiliation, then there are fist fights.

Besides, not ALL shiites are Hizballah supporters and not All Hizballah supporters are shiites. Same goes for ther other political parties as well. Though the majority are.

Go to this site, beirutnights.com click on listen live and enjoy the slide show on the right, you would think you are in a Tel Aviv....

[deathil93]

Originally Posted by 500

Situation after the war is better than before - fact. So how u can say that we "lost badly"?

600 brave soldiers being injured or killed, the fact that the IDF was in a huge disarray and that we couldn't get a decisive win is called: "lost badly".
All that could have been avoided if the leadership wouldn't have been so corrput and ignorant.
I'm not saying that it was better before the war, yes there was an improvment ofc, as I said, but the fact remains that rockets are still flying at us, even if its not in the scale as back than. If we would have won than the casualty rate wouldn't have been as high, neither rockets would have been flying at us. ofc its not entirely the IDF' fault, the only thing that prevented us going all the way were the UN and one of the worst leaderships we had, ever.