Israel threat to attack Iran is not a bluff, deputy FM says

[Annihilator9112]

They have been saying they would attack Iran for months now and still nothing happened. I think they will attack Iran in December or start of next year. If it doesn't happen they will not attack Iran at all then.

[F16]

Originally Posted by Rugal09

Is it possible for Israeli air force to go through Iran's air defense and attack important installations which could be buried deep in the ground?

First, they are going to suppress iranian's AD network, after it's successfully disabled, they are going to fly in with GBU-28s - bunker buster munitions, they can destroy most hardened targets. The IAF will use a lot of them, one after another, digging the hole deeper and deeper, in this case whatever the amount of concrete you have above, it will get penetrated.
To prevent this from happening you don't need more concrete, you need working AD systems.

Will an attack on Iran's nuclear infrastrcture severely retard its nuclear ambitions?

It prevent Iran from future attemps to acquire nuclear technologies which can be used to make weapons, you need troops on the ground, infantry, that means full-scale occupation, with a new government with people very loyal to you in it.

Could Iran harass Israel by ordering Hezbollah to launch missile strikes?

Yes, that's why the IDF is preparing their ground forces with new tactics to deal with hzb fighters in case they enter the south Lebanon, it's almost certainly the hzb will launch attack.

Is it possible for Iranian jets to attack targets within Israel?

There's no way they can break through the Israeli AD system. Chances are zero.

[Walker-69]

Originally Posted by Mastermind

If anyone has an alternate prediction, I would be delighted to hear it.

OK Mastermind, the issue is co complex that we can't possible get into all the detail on this forum. But like I said, I respect your opinion, and if I am wrong, then obviously we will all live to see it and I will be here to admit it too. Anyways, IF there is no pre-emption, I believe that the war will come to Israel and it won't be fought on Israel's terms any more. It might take a long time, but in the end Israel will be like f---ing Somalia where Iran-controlled factions fill fight against remnants of the Juice and Al Qaeda franchises and whoever else might want to join the bash. It might take decades, but look at the manpower of the enemies of Israel, what if they get the nuke, then S-300, plus they already have VX and other nasty sh*t.

PLUS every Arab nation will rush to get their own nuclear program. Do a google with any Arab country + "nuclear program", you will find out that there are a lot of nascent nuclear programs out there. The possibilities for some Al Qaeda fruitcake to obtain their personal nuke will increase tenfold.

PLUS the Iranians might share the technology with their friends. There's many other dictators that don't really need the nuke, but the Iranians might be ready to help them.

Well, take all this with a grain of salt. I am NOT an political analyst. I COULD BE wrong. I try to respect the opinions of others too.

I have the feeling that we will see the outcome this winter. If there is no strike, and if the Bushehr nuclear plant goes online - THEN I will stop believing in a pre-emptive strike. And I hope to be around here to admit that I was wrong.

If there is a pre-emptive strike... it will lead to one hell of a war as well.

EDIT: well, in a way, maybe I do "advocate a strike", unlike I previously claimed... even though my opinion does not matter. I am PRO-Israel, and I would not like to see evacuations of Juice out of Israel and an endless war. That's just based on my limited understanding.

[Mastermind]

Walker- I do not disagree that a strike should be made. I strongly advocate it. However, the opportunity to do anything substantial, even for the US, is past. Iran has found that the "civilized" world will tolerate just about anything so long as it does not involve actual war. The UN is presently, nothing but a "Love Islam" club. The US is now governed by Islamic leaning President, and a totally gutless congress. In fact, we may even consider our present congress to be a rather anti-US and Pro-anything but US organ. Our President is highly in the leanings of the communist direction...or heavy socialist, if that makes readers more comfortable...but, nothing toward Pro-western traditional views. This leaves Israel floating rather precariously without a life raft. Islamic nations with technology are now pressing toward their ultimate goal of total destruction of Israel. They are in a position now that if they play their cards correctly, they could make heavy gains in their play toward those goals. They basically have Israel surrounded. they have the west on the ropes financially and politically. There are no new "Ronald Reagans" on the horizon. Europe is struggling financially and, quite frankly, culturally...moving ever more in the pro-Islam direction.

The bush admin lost their one great chance to retard Iran's nuclear program....perhaps there never really was a chance...but, most certainly the best chance has gone by.

Now, the only thing left to Israel and the west (US particularly) is to wait and see....When Iran declares itself to be a nuclear armed nation, then the game will change dramatically...probably pro Israel. The actual threat will be far more poignant than the "some day" threat.

We probably agree, Israel has no capability to really destroy the Iranian nuclear program. We also probably agree, such a strike, in reality, would do nothing but worsen the present situation. We should agree, the US is absolutely not about to help deter Iran...in fact, it seems to be avoiding any further debate on the subject.

So...that leaves a future with a nuclear armed Iran, a nuclear armed Israel, a US that is ambivalent, a looming financial monster on Iran's borders (China) and a very active Islamic radical group (supported by Iran) aggressively encroaching Israel...that Radical Islamic group is the greatest threat to Israel’s future...how far will conventionally armed Iran go to support them if they begin to get out of hand? How far will a nuclear armed Iran go?

Should Iran develop nuclear weapons, I actually see it slipping into the favor of Israeli interests...Iran would be ashamed to not support their buddies who will be increasingly attacking Israel....yet, if Iran is in the nuclear club, the west will be even more in favor of controlling radical Islam. And, it may not be too far fetched to see Nuclear Iran helping quite a bit in that direction. Iran will not want to let herself get dragged into some idiotic Radical slugging match against a very pissed and nuclear armed Israel. I think Iran is too smart for that.

This is not to say Iran will cease acting the fool…but, it is to say, not so much, once armed with such weapons of mass destruction.

Basically, right now, Iran is no threat...and there are some pretty serious doubts about her sincerity to join the nuclear club...a whole new game will erupt on Iran's front porch when that happens...and they know it. Look how Pakistan has not fared so well with her new powers...in fact, it just made her a pretty damn serious target for nukes...something not particularly good. Once in the club, you can't go back. And, it also put Pakistan much further into the western camp than she ever thought she would be...Why? The west is pretty damn serious about keeping nukes out of the hands of radical Islamists...that was a game changer big time. When the radicals threatened the Paki government, look how intense they suddenly became in stopping that. And, look at the grandiose offers of financial and military aid the west has extended to Pakistan since she became so endowed. Would the same offers go to Iran as long as Iran is acting the fool? I doubt it.

No...the time is well past for a conventional strike to stop Iran's nuclear ambitions...the next time there are any such thoughts, it will not be with conventional arms...Iran is actually having to face into the nuclear abyss and I think Israel is hoping Iran sees reality in there. If not...well, only time will tell.

[dracon49]

If our leaders really consider Iran as an existential threat and dont say that because other reasons so then we need to use all the means to prevent it(including what foreigners say we have).

[Zarak]

Originally Posted by Mastermind

So...that leaves a future with a nuclear armed Iran, a nuclear armed Israel, a US that is ambivalent, a looming financial monster on Iran's borders (China) and a very active Islamic radical group (supported by Iran) aggressively encroaching Israel...that Radical Islamic group is the greatest threat to Israel’s future...how far will conventionally armed Iran go to support them if they begin to get out of hand? How far will a nuclear armed Iran go?

Speaking of China, China's ever growing dependence on Middle East oil and seemingly inevitable growth into a super power may do a lot to contribute to peace in the middle east. As much as I hate to be at all dependent on the 'evil' Chinese, I think they will be an excellent partner for Israel and the United States in the middle east in the future - their interests are similar and Islamic nations may be more apt to listen to China than any Western nation.

[dracon49]

But as you said yourself they get oil from muslim countries like Iran(so they will not allow to impose more sanctions on Iran for example)

[Zarak]

Originally Posted by dracon49

But as you said yourself they get oil from muslim countries like Iran(so they will not allow to impose more sanctions on Iran for example)

Why would China allow a nation like Iran to destabilize the middle east, thereby wildly increasing oil prices, and negatively effecting the Chinese economy? Being an oil exporter doesn't give one a get-out-of-jail-free-card, even with a nation like China.

[dracon49]

They said themself they are opposed to more sanctions on Iran.

[Sootan]

Originally Posted by dracon49

If our leaders really consider Iran as an existential threat and dont say that because other reasons so then we need to use all the means to prevent it(including what foreigners say we have).

You can't prevent it. Delay it, maybe. But that would only make retaliation even more inevitable.

[Estopped]

Originally Posted by Zarak

Why would China allow a nation like Iran to destabilize the middle east, thereby wildly increasing oil prices, and negatively effecting the Chinese economy? Being an oil exporter doesn't give one a get-out-of-jail-free-card, even with a nation like China.

Because China doesn't see it that way. China doesn't see its middle-east relations through the prism of Israeli/American interests.