Israel threat to attack Iran is not a bluff, deputy FM says

[Vettec]

Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon has said that Israel is not bluffing in its threats to take military action against Iran's contentious nuclear program, in remarks broadcast Friday on Sky News.

"The one who's bluffing is Iran, which is trying to play with cards they don't have," Ayalon told the British station. "All the bravado that we see and the testing and the very dangerous and harsh rhetoric is hiding a lot of weaknesses."

The minister's remarks came just a week after the international community proposed a draft nuclear deal that would have seen much of Iran's uranium shipped abroad for enrichment. Iran has demanded changes to the draft but has not yet given its final response.


Ayalon called Iran's tactics in dealing with international power a method of stalling. "If Iranian behavior and conduct continues as they have exhibited so far, it is obvious that their intentions are only to buy time and procrastinate," he said.

Also on Friday, the Guardian reported that the United Nations nuclear watchdog has asked Iran to explain evidence suggesting the Islamic Republic's scientists have experimented with an advanced nuclear warhead design.

The newspaper, citing what it describes as "previously unpublished documentation" from an International Atomic Energy Agency compiled dossier, said Iranian scientists may have tested high-explosive components of a "two-point implosion" device.

Source: http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1126394.html

[Ambassador]

Old news, really.

We know Israel will eventually go at it at least once.

[Rugal09]

By claiming it is not a bluff, it is actually a bluff. Iran knows this but will up the ante with its own bluff followed by more Israeli bluffs. It's like playing chicken.

The more you talk about war/conflict/fight, the less likely it will happen.
A real conflict starts out as a complete surprise.

[GiladS]

Originally Posted by Rugal09

By claiming it is not a bluff, it is actually a bluff. Iran knows this but will up the ante with its own bluff followed by more Israeli bluffs. It's like playing chicken.

The more you talk about war/conflict/fight, the less likely it will happen.
A real conflict starts out as a complete surprise.

I agree.

Israel won't go at it alone.

[Ambassador]

Yeah, probably the Saudis will come with you.

[JBH22]

should not they wait for the f-35

[Ambassador]

Israel is probably worried that that will give Iran enough time to set up nuclear missiles in very heavily fortified bunkers or something.

[GiladS]

Originally Posted by Ambassador

Yeah, probably the Saudis will come with you.

And pigs will fly...

[GiladS]

Originally Posted by JBH22

should not they wait for the f-35

By the time the F-35 enters service the Iranian nuclear program will have passed the point of no return.

And even with the F-35 I doubt Israel could carry out a successful attack.

Only the Americans have the resources to achieve this.

[Ambassador]

Problem with the U.S. military is that it's very reluctant to open up a third front against Iran in the near future.

The U.S. 5th Fleet's headquarters in Bahrain is especially vulnerable against Iran's airspace saturation tactics using cheap missiles; no matter how crude they are it's going to break the base's defense through the sheer weight and volume of fire. It can severely compromise the U.S. Navy's operational capacity in the Persian Gulf.

Their other option is a strike from Diego Garcia which is a several hours of flight away from Iran. By far this is the most preferable.

All the tactical and strategic difficulties in mounting a successful attack against Iran for the current U.S. military notwithstanding, the Democratic president's personal ego will get in the way also.

[Rugal09]

I have a question, does the Israeli Airforce have permission to fly over Iraqi air space at the moment?

Also, although far fetched, is it possible that in the event of an Israeli-Iran conflict, Saudi Arabia may open its airspace given its fear of Iranian influence?

[Ambassador]

Brzezinski suggests that the U.S. block IAF's access to Iraqi airspace.

Saudi Arabian route will be best considering Turkey's recent hostile diplomatic stance against Israel.

[Bamba]

They threatened Hamas before Cast Lead as well.

[deathil93]

Originally Posted by Rugal09

I have a question, does the Israeli Airforce have permission to fly over Iraqi air space at the moment?

Also, although far fetched, is it possible that in the event of an Israeli-Iran conflict, Saudi Arabia may open its airspace given its fear of Iranian influence?

No, but we didn't had premision back when we bombed the Iraqi nuclear reactor either...
Messing with the USAF/USN is way riskier than when we messed with the Syrian airforce in 2008 and the Jordanian airforce in the 80s, as the Americans can track anything that moves and have planes or helicopters in the sky almost all the time over Iraq, unless we decide to strike when the yanks will pull out of Iraq, than we'll have a better chance at making it over Iraq.

As I recall there was an article that said that the Saudis agreed to let Israeli jet fighters to pass through its airspace in case they are going to bomb Iran. Don't know how trust worthy it can be...

I doubt that we'll go at it alone, Iran is the main supplier of funds and arms to almost all the terrorist orginazations in the world, I doubt that they would let Iran fall.

[Universal_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Ambassador

Problem with the U.S. military is that it's very reluctant to open up a third front against Iran in the near future.

The U.S. 5th Fleet's headquarters in Bahrain is especially vulnerable against Iran's airspace saturation tactics using cheap missiles; no matter how crude they are it's going to break the base's defense through the sheer weight and volume of fire. It can severely compromise the U.S. Navy's operational capacity in the Persian Gulf.

Their other option is a strike from Diego Garcia which is a several hours of flight away from Iran. By far this is the most preferable.

All the tactical and strategic difficulties in mounting a successful attack against Iran for the current U.S. military notwithstanding, the Democratic president's personal ego will get in the way also.

Brother, that will be a mistake, cos if that happens it will be raining tomahawks in Iran and I mean it literally. They can only exact minimal damage on US bases but and will get a surgical dismantling of Iranian military installations in return. (Iranian missile accuracy is shabby and the few that are on target will be attacked in the air)